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Annals of Botany 90: 405-415, 2002
© 2002 Annals of Botany Company

A Stochastic Flowering Model Describing an Asynchronically Flowering Set of Trees

F. NORMAND*,1, R. HABIB2 and J. CHADOEUF3

1 CIRAD-FLHOR, BP 180, 97455 Saint Pierre cedex, Réunion Island, France, 2 INRA, Plante et Systèmes de Culture Horticoles, Bât. A, Domaine St Paul, Site Agroparc, F-84914 Avignon cedex 9, France and 3 INRA, Biométrie, Domaine St Paul, Site Agroparc, F-84914 Avignon cedex 9, France

* For correspondence. Fax: +262 2 62 50 58 44, e-mail normand{at}cirad.fr

Received: 11 October 2001; Returned for revision: 18 March 2002; Accepted: 14 June 2002

A general stochastic model is presented that simulates the time course of flowering of individual trees and populations, integrating the synchronization of flowering both between and within trees. Making some hypotheses, a simplified expression of the model, called the ‘shoot’ model, is proposed, in which the synchronization of flowering both between and within trees is characterized by specific parameters. Two derived models, the ‘tree’ model and the ‘population’ model, are presented. They neglect the asynchrony of flowering, respectively, within trees, and between and within trees. Models were fitted and tested using data on flowering of Psidium cattleianum observed at study sites at elevations of 200, 520 and 890 m in Réunion Island. The ‘shoot’ model fitted the data best and reproduced the strong irregularities in flowering shown by empirical data. The asynchrony of flowering in P. cattleianum was more pronounced within than between trees. Simulations showed that various flowering patterns can be reproduced by the ‘shoot’ model. The use of different levels of organization of the general model is discussed.

Key words: Phenology, flowering asynchrony, flowering model, stochastic model, degree days, Psidium cattleianum.


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