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AOBPreview published online on April 19, 2006
Annals of Botany, doi:10.1093/aob/mcl071
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Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Annals of Botany Company 2006
Received November 25, 2005
Revised January 17, 2006
Accepted February 10, 2006

Article

Predicting Germination Response to Temperature. I. Cardinal-temperature Models and Subpopulation-specific Regression

STUART P. HARDEGREE 1 *

1 USDA Agricultural Research Service, Northwest Watershed Research Center, 800 Park Blvd, Suite 105, Boise, ID 83712, USA

* To whom correspondence should be addressed.
STUART P. HARDEGREE, E-mail: shardegr{at}nwrc.ars.usda.gov


  Abstract

• Background and Aims The purpose of this study was to compare the relative accuracy of different thermal-germination models in predicting germination-time under constant-temperature conditions. Of specific interest was the assessment of shape assumptions associated with the cardinal-temperature germination model and probit distribution often used to distribute thermal coefficients among seed subpopulations.

• Methods The seeds of four rangeland grass species were germinated over the constant-temperature range of 3-38 °C and monitored for subpopulation variability in germination-rate response. Subpopulation-specific germination rate was estimated as a function of temperature and residual model error for three variations of the cardinal-temperature model, non-linear regression and piece-wise linear regression. The data were used to test relative model fit under alternative assumptions regarding model shape.

• Key Results In general, optimal model fit was obtained by limiting model-shape assumptions. All models were relatively accurate in the sub-optimal temperature range except in the 3 °C treatment where predicted germination times were in error by as much as 70 d for the cardinal-temperature models.

• Conclusions Germination model selection should be driven by research objectives. Cardinal-temperature models yield coefficients that can be directly compared for purposes of screening germplasm. Other model formulations, however, may be more accurate in predicting germination-time, especially at low temperatures where small errors in predicted rate can result in relatively large errors in germination time.

Keywords: Thermal, germination, model, Elymus elymoides, Elymus lanceolatus, Poa secunda, Pseudoroegneria spicata.
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S. P. HARDEGREE
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